• The nation added 2.4 million jobs through the first 10 months of ’23. 明年将是就业增长健康的一年，11月和12月的就业数据尚未公布.
• U.S. 经通胀调整后的国内生产总值(GDP)增长了2%.0 percent or better all year. The 5.第三季度2%的增长率是过去20年来的第五高.
• 个人消费支出(PCE)是衡量消费者支出的最广泛指标，上升了2%.经通货膨胀调整后，10月份与去年同期相比增长了2%.
• 美国的失业率全年都在波动，但从未超过4%.0 percent. Any rate under 5.0 percent reflects a tight labor market.

然而，十月份的指标显示美国经济已经开始放缓. 雇主在这个月只增加了15万个工作岗位，远低于大流行前每月20万个的平均水平. Sales of new single-family homes slipped 5.6 percent in October. U.S. consumer spending grew only 0.2 percent that month as well. None of these are signs of imminent peril, but they do suggest a return to a slower, steadier state of activity.

If U.S. growth slows, so will Houston’s. Local job gains, home sales, port traffic, 近几个月来，制造业活动有所放缓，这种趋势可能会持续下去. Houston will see much slower growth in ’24. How much slower?

《皇冠HGA010官方下载》将在周四回答这个问题, December 7, 它将在皇家索内斯塔酒店发布2024年休斯顿经济展望.

该计划从上午11点开始注册和建立网络.m. followed by lunch at noon. 熟悉该地区发展的专家们在12:30开始讨论. This year’s discussants are:

• Mark Cover，西南地区和墨西哥/中美洲首席执行官
• Hong Ogle, President, Bank of America Houston, Managing Director, SE/SW Division Executive, Private Bank
• Amy Chronis，德勤副主席兼休斯顿管理合伙人

三人将分享他们对房地产的见解, construction, finance, energy, and professional services. Following the discussion, Patrick Jankowski, 该伙伴关系首席经济学家兼研究部高级副总裁, will share the Partnership’s forecast for ’24. 所有参加者将在活动结束后收到一份打印的天气预报.

To register for the lunch, panel discussion, and forecast, 进入合作伙伴网页的“活动”部分, 7cu4.dektinary.com, or click here. For more information, contact Rebekah Snodgrass at rsnodgrass@dektinary.com. 

Weaker Demand for "Made in Houston"

Metro Houston exports fell 13.8 percent in the first half of ’23, reflecting weaker commodity prices, slower global growth, 企业在消耗大流行后积累的过剩库存. 

这些数据来自人口普查局的人口流动起源(OM)系列, 哪家公司根据货物开始出口旅程的地铁来跟踪货物的移动. For example, 一个在休斯顿生产的阀门可能会被卡车运到迈阿密，然后装上一架飞往拉丁美洲油田的飞机. Though the export leaves the U.S. 通过迈阿密国际机场，它开始了从休斯顿的出口之旅. Census records that as a Houston export. 

While shipments have fallen off, Houston remains the nation’s top exporting metro, ahead of New York, Los Angeles, and Chicago. 过去10年里，该地区有9次被评为全国最大的出口城市. 当23年的完整数据公布时，火箭很可能会保持这个排名.

Employment Update

Metro Houston added 16,400 jobs in October. 这个数字略高于当月的正常范围(1.2万至1.4万). Year-to-date, the region has created 53,700 jobs. 

The region typically adds 15,000 to 30,000 jobs in November and December, which would have Houston finish the year with 63,000 to 83,000 jobs.  去年12月，该伙伴关系预测，如果美国退出欧盟，该地区将创造近8万个就业机会.S. avoided a recession. 该地区有望实现该伙伴关系的预测.

6个部门引领了10月份的就业增长——医疗保健和社会救助, local public education, professional, scientific, and technical services, retail trade, state public education, and transportation and warehousing. As a group, they added over 19,000 jobs.

收益被行政和支助事务方面的损失所抵消, construction, non-durable goods manufacturing, restaurants and bars, services to buildings and dwellings, and the obscure “management of enterprises” sector.

休斯顿的总就业人数现在达到了3389500人. 自20年5月经济重新开放以来，该地区增加了557,000个工作岗位，恢复了155个.在大流行早期失去的35.93万个工作岗位中，有0%. Employment will likely top 3.4 million by year’s end, only to lose 40,000 to 50,如果该地区遵循典型的季节性模式，那么1月份将减少5000个工作岗位. By late ’24, employment should surpass 3.4 million again.

To continue reading, download this report.

注:本出版物中所指的地理区域为“休斯顿”,“休斯顿地区”和“休斯顿大都会”是人口普查指定的休斯顿-伍德兰-糖地的九个县都市统计区, TX. The nine counties are: Austin, Brazoria, Chambers, Fort Bend, Galveston, Harris, Liberty, Montgomery and Waller.